This is based on reports of divorce cases from several provinces covering 66% of the population. Original source: "Divorce cases in civil court, 2010/2011" By Mary Bess Kelly, Statistics Canada. The Statistics Canada web page includes many other findings about divorce litigation, and long historical graphs of divorce and marriage rates.
It also includes projections, which are uncertain and subjective but are also the most intuitively understandable kinds of rates - they answer the question that's most often on people's minds but which there's rarely an answer for: What is a couple's chance of getting divorced? A chart shows this rising from 36.1% in 1996 to a peak of 41.9 in 2006, then declining to 40.7 in 2008. But it varies greatly by province, from 59.7 in the Yukon Territory to 25.0 in Newfoundland and Labrador. This projection is actually the "30-year divorce rate", described as:
"The 30-year total divorce rate (TDR-30) represents the proportion of married couples who are expected to divorce before their 30th wedding anniversary. For example, a TDR-30 of 40.7 per 100 marriages for Canada in 2008 indicates that 40.7% of marriages are expected to end in divorce before the 30th year of marriage (if the duration-specific divorce rates calculated for 2008 remain stable)."