Divorce Statistics and Studies Blog

2010 US divorce rate 0.36 percent, previous rates revised upward

The National Center for Health Statistics at the CDC has released a 2010 divorce rate and absolute number of divorces, in a different and briefer format than in past years. It has also revised the rates it reported over the past decade, which it had reported to be as low as 3.4 divorces per 1000 population in 2009; that has been corrected to 3.5. 

The 2010 rate is 3.6 divorces per 1000 population: i.e., 0.72% of the population got divorced that year. The absolute number of divorces was 872,000. This 2010 number and rate do not include any data for California, Georgia, Hawaii, Indiana, Louisiana, and Minnesota.

 The table below is from "National Marriage and Divorce Rate Trends", National Vital Statistics System, 2012. 

Provisional number of divorces and annulments and rate: United States, 2000-2010

Year	Divorces & annulments	Population	Rate per 1,000 total population
20101	872,000	244,122,529	3.6
20091	840,000	242,610,561	3.5
20081	844,000	240,545,163	3.5
20071	856,000	238,352,850	3.6
20061	872,000	236,094,277	3.7
20051	847,000	233,495,163	3.6
20042	879,000	236,402,656	3.7
20033	927,000	243,902,090	3.8
20024	955,000	243,108,303	3.9
20015	940,000	236,416,762	4.0
20005	944,000	233,550,143	4.0

¹ Excludes data for California, Georgia, Hawaii, Indiana, Louisiana, and Minnesota.

² Excludes data for California, Georgia, Hawaii, Indiana, and Louisiana.

³ Excludes data for California, Hawaii, Indiana, and Oklahoma.

⁴ Excludes data for California, Indiana, and Oklahoma.

⁵ Excludes data for California, Indiana, Louisiana, and Oklahoma.

Note: Rates for 2001-2009 have been revised and are based on intercensal population estimates from the 2000 and 2010 censuses. Populations for 2010 rates are based on the 2010 census.

 

 

Congress to eliminate ACS, rich data source for marriage & divorce studies

The U.S. House of Representatives voted last week to abolish the American Community Survey, a broad survey and census of demographics, public attitudes, and many other features of ordinary Americans' lives. Many studies of marriage, divorce and other family issues -- many of the studies reported on this blog -- do not actually do original research on people; rather, they draw on basic data from the ACS to find correlations between various kinds of information, such as family structures and social problems.

"The Beginning of the End of the Census?" By CATHERINE RAMPELL, The New York Times May 19, 2012

"Bad Divorces" better for kids in long run? -- Two major studies by Amato, Glenn, Marquardt

"Nasty Divorces’ Silver Lining?"

By Beverly Willett  in The Daily Beast, May 19, 2012

 

"Good Cholesterol": An example of untangling correlation & causation

"Doubt Cast on the ‘Good’ in ‘Good Cholesterol’". By GINA KOLATA, New York Times, May 16, 2012.

 

Separations last years; only 79% become divorces - study

About 79% of married couples who separate end up getting divorced, suggest new estimates of the incidence and length of separations.

"Separation is very common and is more common than immediate divorce," said researcher Dmitry Tumin of Ohio State University at a presentation at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, which ended Sunday. "Most separations last one year or less, but a few drag on a decade or more before ending in divorce. Other separations stay unresolved."

"The decision to separate is driven by time spent in the first marriage, and for women, by the presence of young children," Tumin said. He co-authored the research with sociologist Zhenchao Qian, also of Ohio State.

When women have children younger than age 5, their likelihood of separating rather than divorcing right away is increased, Tumin says.

The analysis was based on data from 7,272 individuals who were ages 14-22 in 1979 and had ever married. Of those, 51% were still married. Among the rest, 60% report having gone through a marital separation, with most (79%) ultimately divorcing.

The research found that the average length of a first separation is about four years. For respondents who divorce after separating, it's three years. And for the small number who reunite, the average separation is two years, the study found.

"In fact, we don't observe any separations that end with the couple getting back together after a three-year period, so three years is the point of no return," Tumin said. "After three years, the only outcomes observed are ongoing separation or divorce."

The research found that about 7% of separations lasted 10 or more years. Among different races and ethnic groups, he says Hispanics and blacks are more likely to be separated than are whites, and once separated, they are more likely to stay separated than divorce. ...

"Splitting? 79% of marital separations end in divorce" By Sharon Jayson, USA TODAY, 5/6/12

 

Study pinpoints what makes once-happy couples divorce

"What Kinds of Happy Couples Eventually Get Divorced?" by Alice G. Walton inThe Atlantic, 4/16/12:

"In a new study, the researchers followed 136 married couples who all reported being very satisfied in the first four years of their marriages. They questioned each spouse periodically over a period of 10 years, asking them to rate statements about marriage satisfaction, level of commitment, personality traits, stress levels, problem solving abilities, and how supportive they were with their partners. Some skills and traits were rated by the researchers, as the couples discussed relationship difficulties in the lab. ...

Couples who went on to divorce were more likely to be poorer communicators, and tended to display more negative emotions and support mechanisms than people who stayed married.

For example, the couples who went on to divorce were more likely to use blame and invalidation in their communication efforts. They were more likely to discourage a spouse from expressing his or her feelings, and to display "inappropriate pessimism." Husbands who were more verbally aggressive early on were also more likely to be part of couples who went on to divorce later.

Though the study was small, it has some big implications. The communication and emotional issues seen at the outset of the marriages may contribute to the success of the marriage in the long run, and help predict it. Even more important is the idea that these significant interpersonal issues can exist despite the fact that partners simultaneously report being very satisfied with the marriage. This odd coexistence is one that married (and soon-to-be married) people and mental health experts should keep in mind.

 [Link to study: J Fam Psychol. 2012 Feb;26(1):1-10. Epub 2011 Oct 31.: "Why do even satisfied newlyweds eventually go on to divorce?" by Lavner JA, Bradbury TN]

Another new study explored the relationship between one's general level of life satisfaction and his or her satisfaction with marriage, and found that it's a two-way street. In fact, having more life satisfaction increased one's odds for a happy marriage, and improving one's marital satisfaction was linked to greater happiness in life. The take-home message of this study is that life satisfaction is not only a result of a happy marriage, but, in large degree, it can actually help predict it.

[citing J Fam Psychol. 2012 Feb;26(1):165-70. "Examining changes in relationship adjustment and life satisfaction in marriage." By Stanley SM, Ragan EP, Rhoades GK, Markman HJ.]

 

Saudi Arabia: Recent marriage, divorce & annulment stats

This newspaper column uses the "current divorces/weddings ratio", the unscientific but quick and easy way of computing a divorce rate. 

"Last year, the ministry of justice revealed that there were 148,000 marriages and 31,000 divorces plus 3,449 cases of annulment of marriage in court. This makes about 406 marriages for 85 divorces daily or a 21 percent divorce rate. ..."

- "Divorce in Saudi Arabia" BY KHADIJAH BAWAZEER, SaudiGazette.com.sa 

Divorces-to-weddings ratio & other social indicators 1950-2004

The ratio of divorces in a year to weddings that same year is not very scientific -- few of the people getting divorced got married that same year -- but it is one of the easiest statistics to measure and is not completely devoid of value. According to this chart by a former Stanford professor, "The rate of divorces to marriages was about 25-27% from 1950-1967. That rate doubled to more than 50% ten years later in 1977. Since that time it has remained remarkably constant at about 50%."

From SOCIAL INDICATORS 2006: Family Formation and Sexuality (Part 1)

Part of American Social Indicators, 2006: Getting Better but Feeling Worse, Kruse Chronicle 12/28/06

Kruse also writes:

The percentage of families with both parents present declined from 87.7% in 1960 to 85% in 1970. Except for a brief plateau in the late 1980s, the percentage continued a steady decline to 69.2% in 1993. From 1993 until 2003 the percentage has stayed between 68% and the 1993 level. Over the last two years it has fallen to 67.3%. In 1968, 10.7 of children lived only with their mother, 1.1% with their father, 2.4% with other relatives, and .4% with no relative. By 2003, those percentages were 23.4% with their mother, 4.8% with their father, 3.4% with other relatives, and .9% with no relative.