"Are Marriage Statistics Divorced from Reality?" TIME Magazine reports on Tara Parker-Poe's new book, For Better, which has a chapter on the legendary "50%" divorce rate. (This blog and its predecessor, the Divorce Statistics Collection, have periodically addressed what the 50% projection is and isn't, and how it has been adjusted up and down over the years. See also this NY Times article, and Stanley and
Amato's discussion on SmartMarriages.com.) Some specific statistics reported in the TIME review:
About 23% of college graduates who married in the '70s split within 10 years. For those who wed in the '90s, the rate dropped to 16%.
The '80s: ... 81% of college graduates who got hitched in that decade at age 26 or older were still married 20 years later. Only 65% of college grads who said I do before their 26th birthday made it that far. But just 49% of those who married young and did so without a degree lasted 20 years.
... the 50% stat is a myth that persists because it's something of a political Swiss Army knife, handy for any number of agendas. ... all the talk about grim marriage stats becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. "It makes us ambivalent and more vulnerable to giving up when problems occur."