Divorce Statistics and Studies Blog

Sweeping claim based on virtually nothing: "US Divorce Rates Skyrocket Amid COVID"

"Divorce rates have spiked in the U.S. during the coronavirus pandemic as couples have been stuck at home for months. The number of people looking for divorces was 34 percent higher from March through June compared to 2019, according to new data collected [by] Legal Templates, a company that provides legal documents. ... The data showed that 31 percent of the couples admitted lockdown has caused irreparable damage to their relationships."

"US divorce rates skyrocket amid COVID-19 pandemic"

By Elizabeth Rosner in the New York Post.

 

(To be fair to the author, it wouldn't be surprising if the headline, the lyin' first line, and the decision to run a story based on the "Legal Templates" peddlers' cheesy press release, were all the handiwork of editors.)

 

And that 31%? They were among those responding to a survey sent to the "My Ex Back Coach" mailing list. (Which was later updated and conclusively found that the lockdown had no effect on the respondents' relationships -- see further down.)

"These couples surveyed were married at the time the survey was conducted.
The survey was conducted April 25, 2020.
The survey/poll asked the following question:
How has the COVID-19 lock-down affected your relationship? Get your ex back with Coach Lee's Emergency Breakup Kit!

The following options were provided:

• The lock down has not changed my relationship.
• The lock down has harmed my relationship.
• The lock down has been good for my relationship." 

So wait . . . ONLY 31% of people who were on the "My Ex Back" mailing list, and chose to answer a survey from it, said the lockdown had harmed their relationships???!!! I guess most of the rest of them answered "no change" because their breakups happened before COVID. Also, we were only six weeks into the lockdown then. And I can't even begin to ponder the immense statistical implications of the survey's designers not knowing how to spell the main subject of their survey, the lockdown, but misspelling it TWO DIFFERENT WAYS!

And let's pause to flag a flagrant misuse of language in this and many other writings about divorce: The "My Ex Back" survey was not answered by "couples," it was answered by individuals. 

"My Ex Back" re-ran the survey in January, 2021, and the results (less than half of which are from the U.S.) seem pretty conclusive: The pandemic had had no effect on the great majority of the respondents' relationships: 

"The following are the results of a survey/poll sent to members of our mailing list. These couples surveyed were married as of January 19, 2021. The survey/poll asked the following question: 'Has the lockdown and other changes to life from the COVID-19 pandemic affected your marriage relationship?' The following options were provided:

Get your ex back with Coach Lee's Emergency Breakup Kit!

• • The lock down has not changed my marriage.
  • The lock down has harmed my marriage.
  • The lock down has been good for my marriage.

2429 people responded to this survey conducted January 19, 2021 to our email list. Of the 2429 respondents:

• • 17% answered that the pandemic had been good for their marriage
  • 72% answered that the pandemic had not changed their marriage
  • 11% answered that the pandemic had harmed their marriage"

The 2021 results get more interesting:

"Women were more likely to say their marriage had improved than men.
Men were more likely to say that their marriage had become worse.
21% of women said that their marriage had improved compared to 14% of men.
15% of men said that their marriage was worse compared to 7% of women."

Respondents were also asked if they were considering divorce as of January 19, 2021. Of the respondents, 19.98% (284) said that they were considering divorce. This number is down 29% from our 2019 survey of 1277 married couples where 357 or 28% responded that they were considering divorce.

Demographics of Respondents:

• 48.7% of respondents were from the United States.
• 21.4% of respondents were from the United Kingdom
• 5.8% of respondents were from India
• 5.2% Canada
• 4.6% Philippines

Sex of Respondents:

• 54% female
• 46% male

Age of Respondents:

• 18-24 years 10.6%
• 25-34 years 23.7%
• 35-44 years 37.5%
• 45-54 years 14.9%
• 55-64 years 9.1%
• 65+ years 4.2%

"It appears that some married couples experienced trauma induced limerence from the uncertainty and fear of the lockdowns of 2020-2021 and that such a spark fueled them to work out their issues and improve their marriage relationship."

 Limerence? It's nice to learn a new word, but it's a ridiculously overblown claim.

Limerence is a mental state of profound romantic infatuation, first defined in the 1970s by the psychologist Dorothy Tennov. It is characterised by an initial period of elation and intense emotional arousal that can progress to an involuntary, obsessive craving for another person.

-- From "Living with Limerence" by "Dr. Limerence". Oh. Uh, I can't wait to see what ads I start seeing after visiting Coach Ex-Back and Dr. Limerence. But it fairly matches the straight dictionary definition.

CIA Divorce Rate is Unknown, Even to the CIA. (But it sucks all around.)

Heartbreaking.

CIA divorces: The secrecy when spies split

 

By Ian Shapira in The Washington Post

The Neuroscience of Marital Success or Failure

The science of a happy marriage

By Christian Jarrett on cnn.com,  August 17, 2015

via The Association of Family and Conciliation Courts

Credit scores, and gap between spouses' scores, predict marriage & divorce

The one number that’s eerily good at predicting your success in love

By Ana Swanson on The Washington Post's Wonkblog

Based on Dokko, Jane, Geng Li, and Jessica Hayes (2015). “Credit Scores and Committed Relationships,” Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-081. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2015.081.

Abstract:

This paper presents novel evidence on the role of credit scores in the dynamics of committed relationships. We document substantial positive assortative matching with respect to credit scores, even when controlling for other socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. As a result, individual-level differences in access to credit are largely preserved at the household level. Moreover, we find that the couples’ average level of and the match quality in credit scores, measured at the time of relationship formation, are highly predictive of subsequent separations. This result arises, in part, because initial credit scores and match quality predict subsequent credit usage and financial distress, which in turn are correlated with relationship dissolution. Credit scores and match quality appear predictive of subsequent separations even beyond these credit channels, suggesting that credit scores reveal an individual’s relationship skill and level of commitment. We present ancillary evidence supporting the interpretation of this skill as trustworthiness.

Young Unmarrieds More Marriage-Pessimistic, Pro-Divorce than Married People

Wendy Jessen writes in the heraldtimesonline.com:

Why do so many marriages end in divorce? Could our attitudes and views have something to do with the success or failure of our own marriages?

A study from the National Center for Family and Marriage Research explores the views of Generation X and Millennials on marital success rates. Based on the study, two out of five people (men and women) said that marriages have failed for most of the people they know. Forty to fifty percent of those who chose to cohabit at some point in their life or who are currently cohabiting, see marriage pessimistically. Interestingly, the number is much less for those who are currently married without prior cohabitation -- 22 percent.

Additionally, the majority believe that cohabiting before marriage reduces the risk of divorce, while among those who are married, only about one-third agree that cohabiting prior to marriage helps the marriage last.

Finally, those who have never been married also see divorce as a reasonable solution when a couple can't seem to work through problems. Conversely, married couples are more likely to seek other solutions to marital problems rather than use divorce as an answer to problems.

... Our perceptions are only based on our own reality -- the sum of what we have experienced throughout our lives. It's easy to make a rash judgment based on things you have heard or observed, with limited knowledge on the matter.

... If you get married with the idea that your marriage will eventually fall apart and fail, there's a good chance it will. Why make such a glum self-fulfilling prophecy? Why not go into marriage believing it will last and with the attitude and understanding that marriages take work? If your view of marriage is pessimistic, you'll likely find many reasons to support your theory. The opposite is also true.

Are you pessimistic about marriage success?

By Wendy Jessen of FamilyShare at heraldtimesonline.com via the Association of Family and Conciliation Courts

Based on "Generation X and Millennials Attitudes Toward Marriage & Divorce" (2015) by Kasey J. Eickmeyer at the National Center for Family and Marriage Research at Bowling Green State University.

South Korea: Decreases in divorce illustrated in in-depth story on S.Ct. no-fault divorce decision

Supreme Court upholds “fault divorce” system

System will remain in place where the spouse responsible for marriage’s breakdown cannot petition for a divorce

Sep.19,2015 in The Hankyoreh

In 77% of South Korean divorces, each spouse accepts partial blame for breakup

Adulterer / deserter can't unilaterally divorce wife, even 15 years later - S. Korea Sup. Ct.

Wise questions on divorce stats & Goldilocks Theory: Are 30-something newlyweds really doomed?

Reporting on a correlation that was actually discovered several years ago, Joanna Rothkopf of Jezebel.com says what I've often thought but ne'er so well expressed, and which is rarely expressed at all, but deserves serious thought:

"But for real, how seriously are we supposed to take this? Studies keep claiming bullshit indicators are the keys to lasting marriages, including the price of the engagement ring (don’tspend between $2,000-4,000), amount of individual pre-marriage wealth, the size and price of the wedding and the presence of the honeymoon. So, I don’t know, just live your life."

The eminent marital statistician Nicholas Wolfinger describes what sound like very dramatic correlations between divorce and one's age at marriage:

“My data analysis shows that prior to age 32 or so, each additional year of age at marriage reduces the odds of divorce by 11 percent,” he writes. “However, after that the odds of divorce increase by 5 percent per year.” How come? Wolfinger isn't sure. But controlling the data for demographic and personal characteristics such as race, education, religion, sexual history, family background, or the size of the cities survey takers lived in didn't change the results, suggesting none of those factors could explain it. Ultimately, the professor suspects that there's a lot of self-selection at play: The sorts of people who wait a very long time to say "I do" just might not really be the marrying types, whether they realize it or not. Or, even if they are, their dating pool might have been whittled down to people who aren't.

Study: People Who Get Married After 32 Are More Likely To Get Divorced

By Joanna Rothkopf on Jezebel.com, 7/16/15

Based on:

• " Want to Avoid Divorce? Wait to Get Married, But Not Too Long" by @NickWolfinger on Family-Studies.org July 16, 2015
• " The Goldilocks Theory of Marriage" by Jordan Weissmann on Slate.com
• "Age at marriage and marital instability: revisiting the Becker–Landes–Michael hypothesis" by Evelyn L. Lehrer in the Journal of Population Economics, April 2008, Volume 21, Issue 2, pp 463-484, also dated 01 Sep 2006

 

Couples closer in age less likely to divorce?

The study reported a few weeks ago, saying the more you sepd on your wedding the more likely you are to divorce, also shows that the further apart a couple is in are, the more likely they are to divorce, according to a blog posting with charts, "What makes for a stable marriage? Part 2" by Randy Olson. It also addressed several other variables.

This flies in the face of tens of millions of Chinese-restaurant menu horoscopes, which all say that people born four years apart are the most compatible.

 

The original study is “A Diamond Is Forever and Other Fairy Tales: The Relationship Between Wedding Expenses and Marriage Duration” – Francis and Mialon 2014. This link is to an abstract which in turn has a link to a free download of the study.

Looking at the tables in the original study I can't

Many new correlation factors with higher or lower divorce rates - study

You're more likely to get divorced if...

By Julie Baumgardner, says that

Couples are less likely to divorce if they:

• Go to church regularly
• Make more money
• Honeymooned
• Had more wedding guests
• Dated three years or more before getting engaged

But more likely to divorce if they:

• Eloped
• Spent more money on the wedding
• Spent more on the engagement ring
• Married based on looks or wealth

Based on “A Diamond Is Forever and Other Fairy Tales: The Relationship Between Wedding Expenses and Marriage Duration” – Francis and Mialon 2014. Abstract and link to free download of the study.