Divorce Statistics and Studies Blog

UK's marriage gap doubles since 2001: Rich 48% more likely to marry than poor.

The rich marry. The poor don't.

By Fraser Nelson in the Spectator

Corrollary: The rich are now more likely to marry each other than in the past, increasing socio-economic segregation.

Excerpts:

In 1964, some 93 per cent of children were born within marriage — the same as when records started in the 1850s. But that has now changed, utterly. Strip away immigrants (who tend to be more socially conservative) and almost half of British babies are born to unmarried parents. Cohabitation has not proved stable — today, the average British 15-year-old is more likely to have a smartphone in the pocket than a father in the house.

But even this fact disguises massive divergence in social class. The Office for National Statistics conducts surveys every three months, asking Brits about every aspect of their lives and dividing workers into seven social categories. At the top comes ‘higher managerial’ — the likes of company directors, military officers and university lecturers. At the bottom come the ‘routine occupations’ such as cleaners, builders and waiters.

In 2001, when the figures start, with those in the top category 24 per cent more likely to marry than those at the bottom. That figure now stands at 48 per cent.

This inequality of marriage ought to concern the left. There has been far more family breakdown over the last four decades, but it’s the poorest who are being most affected. There are no absolutes in this argument — successful families do come in all shapes and sizes — but figures do show a broad trend. Fewer than one in ten married parents have split by the time a child is five, but a third of unmarried parents do so. As Tony Blair said, ‘A strong society cannot be morally neutral about the family.’

David Cameron agreed, once. He said he was passionately in favour of marriage, and spoke up for it at the last general election. But the idea of a tax break unnerved the more socially liberal George Osborne, who has refused to implement it until the last four weeks of a five-year parliament. Nick Clegg is hotly against the whole idea, saying politicians should not make ‘moral judgments’. So even talking about the family, far less promoting it, is difficult for a reviled political class terrified of being seen to lecture voters.

The result is a creeping social segregation which is not being discussed, far less addressed. The marriage agenda has fallen foul of a new cross-party consensus: that the toughest questions in politics are, nowadays, best avoided.

History of the Russian family and family law

Still recovering

70 years under Communism have damaged generations of Russian families.

Pavel A. Parfentiev | 26 March 2014

 

Gay and straight divorce rates in Australia's Capital Territory

The headline is probably inaccurate, as the article itself points out. Or rather, it's probably somewhat accurate, but we don't have enough information to be sure. It's based on the "current weddings to divorces" ratio, and the numbers for straight divorces include people married before gay civil unions were available.

Gay divorce rate lower than for straight couples

9 News National, February 16, 2014

 

 

Same-sex divorce rate lower than heterosexual couples

 

February 16, 2014, By Ewa Kretowicz, Canberra Times.

English-Welsh divorce stats for 2012 and back to 1932 released

The Office for National Statistics has published its statistical bulletin for divorces in England and Wales in 2012. It shows divorce rates per-married couple rising from 1973 to 1993, then falling until a low point in 2009,then rising slightly and apparently fluctuating just slightly higher since then, at points between their 1977 and 1978 levels.

The report includes links to detailed excel tables of exact divorce and marriage numbers from 1932 to 2012, and divorce rates per-married-couple from 1972 to 2012, shown below, and many other informative tables on age, marriage duration, cohort analyses (the best way to determine an actual lifetime probability of divorce), previous marriages, and which sex files for the divorce (females around two-thirds of the time; both file jointly less than 0.2% of the time).

• Divorce rates: In 2012, 10.8 people divorced per thousand married population, a decrease of 19% compared with 13.3 in 2002.
• Age at divorce: The number of divorces in 2012 was highest among men and women aged 40 to 44.
• Duration of marriage: The median duration of marriage for divorces granted in 2012 was 11.5 years, which was the same as in 2011. This is an increase from 11.1 years in 2002.
• Marital status before marriage: In 2012, 19% of men and women divorcing had their previous marriage end in divorce.
• Children of divorced couples: Almost half (48%) of couples divorcing in 2012 had at least one child aged under 16 living in the family.
• 60% of marriages are expected to survive to the 20th anniversary.
• The average marriage is expected to last for 32 years.

The number of divorces in England and Wales in 2012 was 118,140, an increase of 0.5% since 2011, when there were 117,558 ... [it] declined between 2003 and 2009 from 153,065 to 113,949 followed by a 4.9% increase in 2010 [and] has remained relatively stable since 2010, fluctuating just below the number recorded in 2010."

(Those are absolute numbers, unlike the US ones that are most often reported in per-capita terms. US per-capita rates have often fallen while absolute numbers rise, due to population growth.)

From: "REPORT REVEALS THAT NUMBER OF DIVORCES IN ENGLAND AND WALES INCREASED IN 2012",  BY MATTHIAS MUELLER - 06 FEBRUARY 2014 on www.familylaw.co.uk

CIting original source: "Divorces in England and Wales, 2012", Statistical Bulletin, Office for National Statistics, which considers any change from 2011 to 2012 inconclusive. It mentions competing theories on the effect of economic recessions on divorce, and says it is too early to tell if either is correct. 

Divorce rates1 by sex, 1972-2012
England and Wales
Year	Divorces per thousand married males	Divorces per thousand married females
1972 9.5 9.4 1973	8.4	8.4
1974	9.0	9.0
1975	9.6	9.6
1976	10.1	10.1
1977	10.4	10.3
1978	11.6	11.6
1979	11.2	11.2
1980	12.0	12.0
1981	11.9	11.9
1982	12.1	12.0
1983	12.2	12.2
1984	12.0	12.0
1985	13.4	13.3
1986	12.9	12.8
1987	12.7	12.6
1988	12.9	12.8
1989	12.8	12.7
1990	13.1	12.9
1991	13.6	13.4
1992	13.9	13.6
1993	14.3	14.1
1994	13.8	13.6
1995	13.7	13.5
1996	13.9	13.7
1997	13.1	12.9
1998	13.0	12.9
1999	13.0	12.9
2000	12.7	12.6
2001	13.0	12.9
2002	13.4	13.3
2003	13.9	13.9
2004	14.0	13.9
2005	12.9	12.9
2006	12.1	12.1
2007	11.8	11.8
2008	11.2	11.3
2009	10.5	10.6
2010	11.0	11.1
2011	10.8	10.8
2012	10.8	10.9

FN 1. Divorce rates for 2002-2010 are calculated using marital status population estimates based on the 2001 Census. Revisions to these estimates to take account of the 2011 Census are not currently planned. Divorce rates for 2011 and 2012 are based on estimated 2011 marital status population estimates which use the mid-2011 population estimates based on the 2011 Census and the marital status distribution from the 2008-based marital status population projections for 2011. Consequently comparisons between rates for 2002-2010 and 2011-2012 should be treated with caution due to the different census bases used. For more information see the section of the Statistical Bulletin titled ‘Availability of Population Estimates by Marital Status and the Calculation of Divorce Rates for 2011 and 2012’.

 

Number of divorces by age at divorce, 2012
England and Wales
Source: Office for National Statistics
AGE	Husband	Wife
Under 20	2	25
20–24	835	2,207
25–29	6,364	10,982
30–34	14,835	18,041
35–39	18,804	19,840
40–44	22,568	22,506
45–49	21,114	19,502
50–54	15,022	12,546
55–59	8,893	6,465
60 and over	9,703	6,026

Number of marriages and divorces, 1932–2012
England and Wales
Year	Divorces	Marriages
1932	3,894	307,184
1933	4,042	318,191
1934	4,287	342,307
1935	4,069	349,536
1936	5,146	354,644
1937	4,886	359,160
1938	6,250	361,768
1939	8,254	439,694
1940	7,755	470,549
1941	6,368	388,921
1942	7,618	369,744
1943	10,012	296,432
1944	12,312	302,714
1945	15,634	397,626
1946	29,829	385,606
1947	60,254	401,210
1948	43,698	396,891
1949	34,856	375,041
1950	30,870	358,490
1951	28,767	360,624
1952	33,922	349,308
1953	30,326	344,998
1954	28,027	341,731
1955	26,816	357,918
1956	26,265	352,944
1957	23,785	346,903
1958	22,654	339,913
1959	24,286	340,126
1960	23,868	343,614
1961	25,394	346,678
1962	28,935	347,732
1963	32,052	351,329
1964	34,868	359,307
1965	37,785	371,127
1966	39,067	384,497
1967	43,093	386,052
1968	45,794	407,822
1969	51,310	396,746
1970	58,239	415,487
1971	74,437	404,737
1972	119,025	426,241
1973	106,003	400,435
1974	113,500	384,389
1975	120,522	380,620
1976	126,694	358,567
1977	129,053	356,954
1978	143,667	368,258
1979	138,706	368,853
1980	148,301	370,022
1981	145,713	351,973
1982	146,698	342,166
1983	147,479	344,334
1984	144,501	349,186
1985	160,300	346,389
1986	153,903	347,924
1987	151,007	351,761
1988	152,633	348,492
1989	150,872	346,697
1990	153,386	331,150
1991	158,745	306,756
1992	160,385	311,564
1993	165,018	299,197
1994	158,175	291,069
1995	155,499	283,012
1996	157,107	278,975
1997	146,689	272,536
1998	145,214	267,303
1999	144,556	263,515
2000	141,135	267,961
2001	143,818	249,227
2002	147,735	255,596
2003	153,065	270,109
2004	152,923	273,069
2005	141,322	247,805
2006	132,140	239,454
2007	128,131	235,367
2008	121,708	235,794
2009	113,949	232,443
2010	119,589	243,808
2011	117,558	247,890P
2012	118,140	..

China: 1 in 5 children live in rural villages without their parents

In China, one in five children live in rural villages without their parents - Wash. Post

Worldwide divorce rates by country and urban vs. rural

Divorces and crude divorce rates by urban/rural residence: 2004 - 2008

From the U.N. Demographic Yearbook

Very thorough note explaining how the statistics work, how they are collected, what exactly they measure, etc. 

This was the source for a recent Huffington Post pictorial on the 10 highest-divorce countries, which displayed little understanding but wonderful visuals.

37% of United Arab Emirates divorces involve expats

Expat divorce a tricky affair

By Gillian Duncan in The National (UAE)

How culture explains different divorce rates between U.S. states, other countries

 A major new study that has shaken the foundations of anthropology, psychology and economics, also provides this insight on the "social rootedness" variable, which I think is a major factor in explaining regional differences in divorce rates in the U.S.:

"Recent research has shown that people in “tight” cultures, those with strong norms and low tolerance for deviant behavior (think India, Malaysia, and Pakistan), develop higher impulse control and more self-monitoring abilities than those from other places. Men raised in the honor culture of the American South have been shown to experience much larger surges of testosterone after insults than do Northerners. Research published late last year suggested psychological differences at the city level too. Compared to San Franciscans, Bostonians’ internal sense of self-worth is more dependent on community status and financial and educational achievement."

"We Aren’t the World" [also titled "Why Americans are the Weirdest People in the World"], Pacific Standard February 25, 2013 • By Ethan Watters 

 

Worldwide study: Two-parent family helps educational achievement greatly

Family structure: it’s an education in itself

Andrea Mrozek | Thursday, 24 January 2013 on mercator.net

Brazil: 2011 divorce up 46% over 2010 after law loosened

"the country’s IBGE statistics agency ... recorded more than 350,000 divorces in 2011 ..."

- "Brazilians make the most of divorce law" - scotsman.com