Divorce Statistics and Studies Blog

US divorce rate up: 0.32% in 2016, was 0.31% in '15. Marriage rate flat at 0.69%

The CDC's National Center for Health Statistics reports:

National marriage and divorce rate trends for 2000-2016

Divorce rates by State: 1990, 1995, and 1999-2016

 These are per capita rates, i.e., compared to the entire population of all ages, whether married or not.

These rates have always made more sense to me if you double them, because there are two people in every divorce and every marriage. So "3.2 per 1,000" means 0.32% divorces-per-capita, but it means 0.64% of us got divorced in 2016.

This was computed without any information from California, Georgia, Hawaii, Indiana, Minnesota, or New Mexico; those states did not count their divorces for 2016.

 

 

Cumulative/Lifetime Divorce Rates Sorted by Education, Employment, Ethnicity

Divorce Rates for Different Groups

By NATHAN YAU on  DATA UNDERLOAD, 3/30/16 (using data through 2014)

The Divorce Surge Is Over, but the Myth Lives On: CUMULATIVE Stats Tell a More Relevant Story

"About 70 percent of marriages that began in the 1990s reached their 15th anniversary, up from about 65 percent of those that began in the 1970s and 1980s.Those who married in the 2000s are so far divorcing at even lower rates. If current trends continue, nearly two-thirds of marriages will never involve a divorce. 

"The decline in divorce is concentrated among people with college degrees. For the less educated, divorce rates are closer to those of the peak divorce years. Of college-educated people who married in the early 2000s, only about 11 percent divorced by their seventh anniversary, the last year for which data is available. Among people without college degrees, 17 percent were divorced."

Condensed from:

The Divorce Surge Is Over, but the Myth Lives On: Cumulative share of marriages ending in divorce

 

By Claire Cain Miller  in the New York Times, 12/2/14

 

But I heartily disagree with Justin Wolfers's explanation for this (or what looks like his explanation after the reporter and editors get through with it): 

“It’s just love now,” Mr. Wolfers said. “We marry to find our soul mate, rather than a good homemaker or a good earner.”

Being a good earner has always been important in the marriage market. Just ask the President.

Specious accuracy: We need to be approximately right, not precisely wrong - Edward Tufte

By Edward Tufte

Headlines show how journalism distorts statistics & studies

Headlines from a Mathematically Literate World by Ben Orlin at mathwithbaddrawings.com

Big caveat: Some of the examples make points that go outside the author's actual expertise -- he's solid on mathematics and statistics but those necessarily overlap all kinds of other fields, which in turn depend on statistics but also on other branches of science. His example about the minimum wage is uniquely outside the scope of his expertise and of the whole point of his article, because it's actually about microeconomic analysis and prediction, not an empirical, statistical  analysis of outcomes. 

 

Divorce rate NOT 50%: maybe 33% if current trends go on; 28.5% if educated, 38% if not; 17 to 42% depending on race

44% if Native American

42% if Black

37% if White

28.5% if Hispanic

17% if Asian 

 

Who gets divorced in America, in 7 charts

By Ana Swanson, April 6, 2016, on The Washington Post's Wonkblog

Based on 

Divorce Rates for Different Groups

POSTED TO DATA UNDERLOAD  by  NATHAN YAU on flowingdata.com

And on 

The Divorce Surge Is Over, but the Myth Lives On

 By Claire Cain Miller @clairecm DEC. 2, 2014 in The New York Times's "The Upshot"

 

Another story based on the same source:

See How Your Likelihood Of Divorce Changes With Age, Education, And Ethnicity

The most important finding? Contrary to popular belief, you are more likely to stay married than get divorced.

By CHARLIE SORREL, 04.05.16 on fastcoexist.com

Divorce/Margarine, Drowning/Marriage ... This Cluster of Correlations Couldn't be Coincidence

Divorce and margarine went in and (deservedly) out of fashion together, as everyone knows who thinks about it for a moment and is old enough to remember. And now, as marriage continues its long decline, Kentucky fishing-boat drownings do too, probably since marriage makes you want to go out alone in a small boat with nothing but a case of beer and your fishing gear. Seriously, how many of those guys out there fishing do you think are single? Single guys are probably somewhere where they're more likely to meet single women.

And yet Tyler VIgen refers to these and many others as "Spurious Correlations." These are among a top-ten list that also includes murders with hot objects, death from getting tangled in the bedsheets, Nicholas Cage movies, cheese-eating, moon-landing, suicide, Miss America,video games, killer spiders, spelling bees, and Ph.D.s.

Spurious Correlations

10 more here:

The 10 Most Bizarre Correlations

And here's ten that riff on another commonly reported form of statistic or study, not a correlation of change over time, but studies where a subset of respondents who have a particular response also show a different mixture of responses to a completely different question than is representative of the entire study pool. Stuff like, 60% of divorced people preferred chocolate ice cream compared to 80% of the general population.

10 Crazy Correlations Between Unrelated Things

By Gus Lubin and Tony Manfred

 

But wait, there's more correlations, marked in some damn good and genuinely important articles:

How a TV Sitcom Triggered the Downfall of Western Civilization

BY DAVID HOPKINS

 

And cutting a wider swath but coming to about the same conclusion, although blaming not sitcoms but the reality shows that mostly replaced them ...

Postapocalyptic hellscape by Jacob T. Levy

 

(h/t Jason Rylander and Todd Seavey) 

New state-by-state divorce rates: some surprising, some not; Iowa, Ill. & Louisiana best

In per-capita divorce rates through 2014 released by the Centers for Disease Control's National Center for Health Statistics, the lowest-divorce state is no longer Massachusetts, DC or North Dakota, but Iowa with 0.15%. (Those other states' rates are still well below average, but not among the lowest.)

Although Southern states (except for Maryland and D.C.) have high divorce rates, sinful Louisiana was second-lowest nationwide in 2013, with 0.22%, and third-lowest in 2014 with 0.23%.

A Northeastern low-divorce region stretches from Massachusetts to D.C., and does NOT include Northern New England or Delaware. A North-Central region includes Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa and the Dakotas, and probably Minnesota, which had rates close to Iowa's until it stopped reporting divorce rates in 2005. Bordering this region, Michigan, Nebraska and Kansas had only slightly below-average rates. The only other lower-than-average states were three deep-Southern ones (South Carolina, Louisiana and Texas), and the barely below-average Utah.

The other states that refuse to report divorce rates were California, Georgia, Hawaii and Indiana.

The usual suspects, led by Nevada, had the highest rates.

The only state with the same rate as the nationwide mean divorce rate was Ohio, with 0.32% 

Divorce rates by State: 1990, 1995, and 1999-2014, RANKED BY 2014 RATE

 

State 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1995 1990 California --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 4.3 Georgia --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 3.2 2.5 3.1 3.3 4.1 5.1 5.5 Hawaii --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 3.7 4.0 3.9 3.8 4.6 4.6 Indiana --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Minnesota --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.5 Iowa 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.7 3.9 Illinois 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.8 Louisiana 2.3 2.2 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 3.4 3.3 --- --- --- --- --- Maryland 2.5 2.5 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.0 3.3 3.2 3.0 3.4 Connecticut 2.6 2.8 2.7 3.1 2.9 3.0 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.0 2.9 3.2 District of Columbia 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 1.7 2.1 2.0 1.8 2.0 2.4 2.9 3.2 3.6 3.2 4.5 Massachusetts 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.8 Pennsylvania 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.3 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.3 Texas 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.0 3.8 5.2 5.5 Wisconsin 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.6 New Jersey 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 New York 2.8 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.1 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.0 3.3 3.0 3.2 North Dakota 2.8 2.9 3.1 2.7 3.1 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.4 4.4 3.4 3.6 Rhode Island 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.0 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 2.9 2.7 3.6 3.7 South Dakota 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.2 2.8 3.1 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 3.7 South Carolina 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.8 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.5 Kansas 3.0 3.0 3.4 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.6 3.4 3.6 3.4 4.1 5.0 Michigan 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.8 4.1 4.3 Nebraska 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 4.0 Utah 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.0 4.4 5.1 Ohio 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 4.0 4.0 4.2 3.9 4.3 4.7 Delaware 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.9 3.5 3.9 3.9 4.5 5.0 4.4 Missouri 3.3 3.4 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.4 5.0 5.1 Mississippi 3.4 3.6 4.0 4.0 4.3 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.8 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.8 5.5 Montana 3.4 3.4 3.9 4.0 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.4 4.5 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.2 2.8 4.8 5.1 North Carolina 3.4 3.4 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.5 4.6 5.0 5.1 Oregon 3.4 3.6 3.8 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.6 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.7 5.5 New Hampshire 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.9 3.8 4.1 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.8 5.1 4.2 4.7 Vermont 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.8 3.6 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.1 4.4 4.7 4.5 Virginia 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.0 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.4 Maine 3.6 4.0 3.9 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.7 5.0 5.1 4.4 4.3 New Mexico 3.6 3.4 3.0 3.3 4.0 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.6 4.6 5.2 4.4 4.9 5.1 4.6 6.6 4.9 Washington 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.2 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.5 4.6 5.0 5.4 5.9 Alabama 3.8 3.7 3.6 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.5 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.7 6.0 6.1 Kentucky 3.8 4.2 4.1 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 5.0 4.6 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.5 5.9 5.8 Tennessee 3.8 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.2 3.9 4.2 4.3 4.6 4.6 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.9 5.8 6.2 6.5 Arizona 3.9 3.9 4.3 3.9 3.5 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.8 4.0 4.6 4.6 6.2 6.9 Colorado 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 --- 5.5 Alaska 4.0 4.5 4.5 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.3 3.9 4.6 4.3 3.9 5.0 5.0 5.5 Florida 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.7 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.5 6.3 Idaho 4.2 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.5 5.4 5.8 6.5 West Virginia 4.2 4.6 4.7 5.2 5.1 5.1 4.8 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.0 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1 4.9 5.2 5.3 Oklahoma 4.5 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.2 4.8 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.6 4.9 --- --- --- --- --- 6.6 7.7 Wyoming 4.6 4.3 4.4 4.8 5.1 5.1 4.9 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.8 5.8 5.7 6.6 6.6 Arkansas 4.8 5.0 5.3 5.3 5.7 5.7 5.5 5.9 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.0 6.2 6.2 6.4 6.2 6.3 6.9 Nevada 5.3 5.1 5.5 5.6 5.9 6.6 6.4 6.4 6.7 7.4 6.3 7.3 7.1 6.3 9.9 7.8 7.8 11.4

 

Divorce rate 1

 

--- Data not available.

1 Includes annulments. Includes divorce petitions filed or legal separations for some counties or States.

Note: Rates for 2001-2009 have been revised and are based on intercensal population estimates from the 2000 and 2010 censuses. Source: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System. [Rates are based on provisional counts of divorces by state of occurrence. Rates are per 1,000 total population residing in area. Population enumerated as of April 1 for 1990, 2000, and 2010 and estimated as of July 1 for all other years]

Source: Divorce rates by State: 1990, 1995, and 1999-2014 

Divorce rates by State: 1990, 1995, and 1999-2014

[Rates are based on provisional counts of divorces by state of occurrence. Rates are per 1,000 total population residing in area. Population enumerated as of April 1 for 1990, 2000, and 2010 and estimated as of July 1 for all other years]

 

2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1995 1990 Alabama 3.8 3.7 3.6 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.5 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.7 6.0 6.1 Alaska 4.0 4.5 4.5 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.3 3.9 4.6 4.3 3.9 5.0 5.0 5.5 Arizona 3.9 3.9 4.3 3.9 3.5 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.8 4.0 4.6 4.6 6.2 6.9 Arkansas 4.8 5.0 5.3 5.3 5.7 5.7 5.5 5.9 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.0 6.2 6.2 6.4 6.2 6.3 6.9 California --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 4.3 Colorado 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 --- 5.5 Connecticut 2.6 2.8 2.7 3.1 2.9 3.0 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.0 2.9 3.2 Delaware 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.9 3.5 3.9 3.9 4.5 5.0 4.4 District of Columbia 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 1.7 2.1 2.0 1.8 2.0 2.4 2.9 3.2 3.6 3.2 4.5 Florida 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.7 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.5 6.3 Georgia --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 3.2 2.5 3.1 3.3 4.1 5.1 5.5 Hawaii --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 3.7 4.0 3.9 3.8 4.6 4.6 Idaho 4.2 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.5 5.4 5.8 6.5 Illinois 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.8 Indiana --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Iowa 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.7 3.9 Kansas 3.0 3.0 3.4 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.6 3.4 3.6 3.4 4.1 5.0 Kentucky 3.8 4.2 4.1 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 5.0 4.6 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.5 5.9 5.8 Louisiana 2.3 2.2 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 3.4 3.3 --- --- --- --- --- Maine 3.6 4.0 3.9 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.7 5.0 5.1 4.4 4.3 Maryland 2.5 2.5 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.0 3.3 3.2 3.0 3.4 Massachusetts 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.8 Michigan 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.8 4.1 4.3 Minnesota --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.5 Mississippi 3.4 3.6 4.0 4.0 4.3 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.8 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.8 5.5 Missouri 3.3 3.4 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.4 5.0 5.1 Montana 3.4 3.4 3.9 4.0 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.4 4.5 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.2 2.8 4.8 5.1 Nebraska 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 4.0 Nevada 5.3 5.1 5.5 5.6 5.9 6.6 6.4 6.4 6.7 7.4 6.3 7.3 7.1 6.3 9.9 7.8 7.8 11.4 New Hampshire 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.9 3.8 4.1 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.8 5.1 4.2 4.7 New Jersey 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 New Mexico 3.6 3.4 3.0 3.3 4.0 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.6 4.6 5.2 4.4 4.9 5.1 4.6 6.6 4.9 New York 2.8 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.1 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.0 3.3 3.0 3.2 North Carolina 3.4 3.4 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.5 4.6 5.0 5.1 North Dakota 2.8 2.9 3.1 2.7 3.1 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.4 4.4 3.4 3.6 Ohio 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 4.0 4.0 4.2 3.9 4.3 4.7 Oklahoma 4.5 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.2 4.8 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.6 4.9 --- --- --- --- --- 6.6 7.7 Oregon 3.4 3.6 3.8 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.6 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.7 5.5 Pennsylvania 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.3 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.3 Rhode Island 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.0 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 2.9 2.7 3.6 3.7 South Carolina 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.8 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.5 South Dakota 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.2 2.8 3.1 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 3.7 Tennessee 3.8 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.2 3.9 4.2 4.3 4.6 4.6 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.9 5.8 6.2 6.5 Texas 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.0 3.8 5.2 5.5 Utah 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.0 4.4 5.1 Vermont 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.8 3.6 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.1 4.4 4.7 4.5 Virginia 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.0 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.4 Washington 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.2 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.5 4.6 5.0 5.4 5.9 West Virginia 4.2 4.6 4.7 5.2 5.1 5.1 4.8 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.0 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1 4.9 5.2 5.3 Wisconsin 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.6 Wyoming 4.6 4.3 4.4 4.8 5.1 5.1 4.9 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.8 5.8 5.7 6.6 6.6

State

 

Divorce rate 1

 

--- Data not available.

1 Includes annulments. Includes divorce petitions filed or legal separations for some counties or States.

Note: Rates for 2001-2009 have been revised and are based on intercensal population estimates from the 2000 and 2010 censuses. Source: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System.

How to mislead with sloppy stats: The sex trafficking example

I don't know if any particular claims in this are true, or what "Truthout" is, but their description of all the definition-stretching and bait-and-switch tactics with statistics certainly rings true and provides vivid, compelling examples of something often observed in other fields.

Special Report: Money and Lies in Anti-Human Trafficking NGOs
Tuesday, 27 January 2015
By Anne Elizabeth Moore, Truthout

UK lifetime divorce rate by year-wed: 1963: 28%, High: 1986, 44%, Post-70s Low: 2008-present, 38%

You don't really know the divorce rate for a particular group of people until they're all dead. Or widowed. Most of what is offered as "divorce rates" are single-year per capita totals, pure "projections" predicting from recent trends, or the ratio of weddings to divorces in a single year and jurisdiction. As the UK's Marriage Foundation notes,"This 'year of divorce' method of calculating divorce rates makes analysis of trends all but impossible to assess because it mixes marriages of different durations." But once a cohort gets past the point where their chance of divorce becomes infinitesimal anyway, you can get a handle on it.

Of course, that assumes no great increase in the numbers of people divorcing after their silver anniversary. But it's still about the best method out there, and was undertaken recently in a study by the Marriage Foundation. And in fact the gray-divorce factor mentioned above as a caveat apparently does not apply in the UK: the researchers say divorce rates after the 10th anniversary have always been stable, with all the ups and downs in rates coming in the first 10 years of marriage. The study does seem to incorporate some element of lifetime projection and prediction, especially for newer marriages, but they do have those cohorts' records up until now to look at, as well as the stability in divorce rates for long marriages.

There are a few cohort-based studies in the U.S., which are some of the best explorations of divorce rates out there, but they are slightly less reliably because of middle-aged and elderly divorce, and because the collection and analysis of divorce statistics in the U.S. is relatively primitive, barely funded, and does not even cover several states, including California. Most studies tracking individuals and couples are done through the "long-form census" sent to a small but representative sample of the population, and even that has been threatened by budget cuts and by disdain from both the left and the libertarian right for government studies and records of marriage and family life.

This article about the study in The Daily Mail blames the 1969 no-fault laws for the increase, and seems to credit premarital cohabitation and rising marriage ages for the later improvements:

"Anyone who wed in 1986 has the highest chance in modern times of ending up divorced. In fact, researchers say almost half of those who married then will eventually split up. ... It was the first of six bleak years for marriage, during which the easy availability of divorce and the erosion of traditional family values meant that more couples parted than ever before or since. After 1991 the figure waned, until by 2008 – the year that produced the most stable marriages in recent times – the proportion of couples who will see their union end in divorce is put at well under the four out of ten mark.

"The study by the Marriage Foundation think tank gives a year-by-year breakdown of a couple’s chance of divorce, from the liberal 1960s and the explosion in numbers of marriage break-ups that followed.

Divorce law reforms in 1969 removed the idea that a husband or wife had to have been at fault from many cases, and introduced the ‘quickie’ divorce for those who admitted adultery or other faults.

Since the 1990s marriages have become more stable, with younger couples often choosing to live together before marriage, and those who do marry waiting until they are older, and then enjoying more long-lived unions.

Harry Benson of the Marriage Foundation said the average age for brides and grooms at their first wedding was 30 and 32 in 2011 – up from 23 and 25 in the early 1980s.

‘The entire rise and fall in divorce rates since the 1960s has taken place within the first decade of married life,’ he said. 

‘The worst two years to get married were 1986 and 1991. Some 44 per cent of couples who married in these years will end up divorced.’

The figures, based on Office for National Statistics marriage and divorce returns, revealed that in 1963 fewer than a third of weddings were due to lead to divorce – 28.2 per cent. But by 1977, following the 1969 reforms, the predicted risk of divorce for newly-marrieds had topped 40 per cent.

The 1986 peak was matched with 44.4 per cent predicted divorce levels for those marrying in 1988 and 1991. 

Then, gradually, divorce began to tail off and in 2008 bottomed out at 38.3 per cent. The lifetime likelihood of divorce for those married in 2012, the latest year for which figures are available, was 38.4 per cent."

Why 1986 was the worst year to get married: Nearly half of unions have ended in failure

• Those who wed in 1986 have highest chance in modern times of divorce
• Study by a think tank found 1991 was the second worst year to get married
• Since 1990, marriages have been more stable with couples moving in first

By STEVE DOUGHTY in THE DAILY MAIL, 11/30/15

Based on the Marriage Foundation study: Benson (2014), Early marriages stronger for 8th year running.

 Foundation press release