Divorce Statistics and Studies Blog

Credit scores, and gap between spouses' scores, predict marriage & divorce

The one number that’s eerily good at predicting your success in love

By Ana Swanson on The Washington Post's Wonkblog

Based on Dokko, Jane, Geng Li, and Jessica Hayes (2015). “Credit Scores and Committed Relationships,” Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-081. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2015.081.

Abstract:

This paper presents novel evidence on the role of credit scores in the dynamics of committed relationships. We document substantial positive assortative matching with respect to credit scores, even when controlling for other socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. As a result, individual-level differences in access to credit are largely preserved at the household level. Moreover, we find that the couples’ average level of and the match quality in credit scores, measured at the time of relationship formation, are highly predictive of subsequent separations. This result arises, in part, because initial credit scores and match quality predict subsequent credit usage and financial distress, which in turn are correlated with relationship dissolution. Credit scores and match quality appear predictive of subsequent separations even beyond these credit channels, suggesting that credit scores reveal an individual’s relationship skill and level of commitment. We present ancillary evidence supporting the interpretation of this skill as trustworthiness.

Top 10 reasons for divorce and what happens in the 2 years before it - UK survey of 1,000

• New Survey Sheds Light On How And Why Couples Call It Quits (INFOGRAPHIC) - huffingtonpost.com
• Stigma of Divorce Still Alive & Well in 2014 Britain – New Report - Slater & Gordon
• Slater & Gordon Research Shows Unhappy Couples Fear Stigma of Divorce

 

Study pinpoints what makes once-happy couples divorce

"What Kinds of Happy Couples Eventually Get Divorced?" by Alice G. Walton inThe Atlantic, 4/16/12:

"In a new study, the researchers followed 136 married couples who all reported being very satisfied in the first four years of their marriages. They questioned each spouse periodically over a period of 10 years, asking them to rate statements about marriage satisfaction, level of commitment, personality traits, stress levels, problem solving abilities, and how supportive they were with their partners. Some skills and traits were rated by the researchers, as the couples discussed relationship difficulties in the lab. ...

Couples who went on to divorce were more likely to be poorer communicators, and tended to display more negative emotions and support mechanisms than people who stayed married.

For example, the couples who went on to divorce were more likely to use blame and invalidation in their communication efforts. They were more likely to discourage a spouse from expressing his or her feelings, and to display "inappropriate pessimism." Husbands who were more verbally aggressive early on were also more likely to be part of couples who went on to divorce later.

Though the study was small, it has some big implications. The communication and emotional issues seen at the outset of the marriages may contribute to the success of the marriage in the long run, and help predict it. Even more important is the idea that these significant interpersonal issues can exist despite the fact that partners simultaneously report being very satisfied with the marriage. This odd coexistence is one that married (and soon-to-be married) people and mental health experts should keep in mind.

 [Link to study: J Fam Psychol. 2012 Feb;26(1):1-10. Epub 2011 Oct 31.: "Why do even satisfied newlyweds eventually go on to divorce?" by Lavner JA, Bradbury TN]

Another new study explored the relationship between one's general level of life satisfaction and his or her satisfaction with marriage, and found that it's a two-way street. In fact, having more life satisfaction increased one's odds for a happy marriage, and improving one's marital satisfaction was linked to greater happiness in life. The take-home message of this study is that life satisfaction is not only a result of a happy marriage, but, in large degree, it can actually help predict it.

[citing J Fam Psychol. 2012 Feb;26(1):165-70. "Examining changes in relationship adjustment and life satisfaction in marriage." By Stanley SM, Ragan EP, Rhoades GK, Markman HJ.]

 

Marriage skills programs improve communication, satisfaction in short- & long-term - study

"A study involving 17,245 Californians who invested anywhere from eight to 24 hours in a marriage education program found an average increase of more than 13 percent in relationship satisfaction immediately following the marriage education course; six months later, the satisfaction level rose to 14 percent higher than before the course.

"The increased satisfaction level was likely a function of improved communication, which in comparison to before the course, increased 23 percent immediately following the training and 27 percent at the six-month mark.

"... the survey drew from a diverse participant pool: the couples involved included those with severe marital problems who were relatively “resistant” to change as well as highly-functioning couples who had “relatively little room for improvement.” Further, all ages and socioeconomic levels were represented, and 50 percent took the class in a language other than English.

"... more than a dozen different marriage education programs or curricula were measured, although all classes had in common a primary focus on teaching communication and conflict management skills."

 From " Marriage Matters: Tool Time" by James and Audora Burg, Sturgis Journal (Sturgis, Mich.) Apr 01, 2012, via smartmarriages.com and billcoffin.org.

 

Couples' divorce decision-making studied by divorce lawyer/mediator turned family studies Ph.D.

Helping Couples in the Divorce Decision-Making “Wilderness”

April 16, 2012 by  Alan J. Hawkins

 

Divorce hurts health more at earlier ages, prevention & support needed - study

"Divorce hurts health more at earlier ages"

Michigan State University News Release 1/30/12. Excerpts:

Divorce at a younger age hurts people’s health more than divorce later in life, according to a new study by Michigan State University sociologist Hui Liu in the research journal Social Science & Medicine.  “It’s clear to me that we need more social and family support ... divorce counseling to help people handle the stress, or offering marital therapy or prevention programs to maintain marital satisfaction.”

Liu analyzed the self-reported health of 1,282 participants in Americans’ Changing Lives, a long-term national survey. She measured the gap in health status between those who remained married during the 15-year study period and those who transitioned from marriage to divorce, at certain ages and among different birth cohorts, or generations.

Liu found the gap was wider at younger ages. For example, among people born in the 1950s, those who got divorced between the ages of 35 and 41 reported more health problems in relation to their continuously married counterparts than those who got divorced in the 44 to 50 age range.

... the negative health impact was stronger for baby boomers than it was for older generations ...

Overall, the study found that those who transition from marriage to divorce experience a more rapid health decline than those who remain married. However, those who remained divorced during the entire study period showed no difference [from] those who remained married.

“This suggests it is not the status of being married or divorced, per se, that affects health, but instead is the process of transitioning from marriage to divorce that is stressful and hurts health,” Liu said.

 

 

30% of Divorced Women Knew He Was Mr. Wrong All Along!

"The Shocking Truth for Thirty Percent of Divorced Women" by Jennifer Gauvain on Huffington Post

More discussion of the study, by the same author: "Why So Many Of Us Marry The Wrong Person"

 

 

Generosity with time, small kindnesses correlate strongly with better marriages

The Generous Marriage

 New York Times Magazine 12/11/11

By TARA PARKER-POPE

Military divorce up 20% from 2001 to 2009, but marriage ed. helps - DOD

A CBS station in Birmingham says that the Defense Department reports a military divorce rate of 2.6% in 2001, and 3.6% in 2009, but that it did not go up any higher in 2010.  (A major RAND study in 2007 had described the increase as gradual and unrelated to deployments -- at that time the rate was 3%, which it pointed out was the same as in 1996.)

 

Breakdown by gender: it says that in 2010 "7.8 percent of women in the military got a divorce, compared with 3 percent of military men." That's consistent with earlier figures.

 

But the article also acknowledges, "A big reason for the plateau could be the military's recent proactive stance to lowering these divorce rates. There are several programs offering marriage support.  A recent study showed that couples attending one such program suffer 33 percent fewer divorces than those who do not." More detail on that here.

Couples staying married longer

"Census: Married couples staying married longer" - Matthew Clark, Pittsburg, KS Morning Sun.

More than half of currently married couples have been married at least 15 years and 35 percent have been married 25 years - a slight increase since 1996, the Census Bureau reports.

 1% of couples have both spouses married three or more times. 72 percent of couples have both spouses in their first marriage. 6% have the wife in her second marriage and the husband in the first; 8%  have the husband in his second and the wife in her first. 

 

The article cites increased pre-marital education offered or required by churches as a possible reason, and also that people are now older when they first marry, and "31 percent of women who have recently married have a bachelor’s degree", up from 21% in 1996.