Divorce Statistics and Studies Blog

Sweeping claim based on virtually nothing: "US Divorce Rates Skyrocket Amid COVID"

"Divorce rates have spiked in the U.S. during the coronavirus pandemic as couples have been stuck at home for months. The number of people looking for divorces was 34 percent higher from March through June compared to 2019, according to new data collected [by] Legal Templates, a company that provides legal documents. ... The data showed that 31 percent of the couples admitted lockdown has caused irreparable damage to their relationships."

"US divorce rates skyrocket amid COVID-19 pandemic"

By Elizabeth Rosner in the New York Post.

 

(To be fair to the author, it wouldn't be surprising if the headline, the lyin' first line, and the decision to run a story based on the "Legal Templates" peddlers' cheesy press release, were all the handiwork of editors.)

 

And that 31%? They were among those responding to a survey sent to the "My Ex Back Coach" mailing list. (Which was later updated and conclusively found that the lockdown had no effect on the respondents' relationships -- see further down.)

"These couples surveyed were married at the time the survey was conducted.
The survey was conducted April 25, 2020.
The survey/poll asked the following question:
How has the COVID-19 lock-down affected your relationship? Get your ex back with Coach Lee's Emergency Breakup Kit!

The following options were provided:

• The lock down has not changed my relationship.
• The lock down has harmed my relationship.
• The lock down has been good for my relationship." 

So wait . . . ONLY 31% of people who were on the "My Ex Back" mailing list, and chose to answer a survey from it, said the lockdown had harmed their relationships???!!! I guess most of the rest of them answered "no change" because their breakups happened before COVID. Also, we were only six weeks into the lockdown then. And I can't even begin to ponder the immense statistical implications of the survey's designers not knowing how to spell the main subject of their survey, the lockdown, but misspelling it TWO DIFFERENT WAYS!

And let's pause to flag a flagrant misuse of language in this and many other writings about divorce: The "My Ex Back" survey was not answered by "couples," it was answered by individuals. 

"My Ex Back" re-ran the survey in January, 2021, and the results (less than half of which are from the U.S.) seem pretty conclusive: The pandemic had had no effect on the great majority of the respondents' relationships: 

"The following are the results of a survey/poll sent to members of our mailing list. These couples surveyed were married as of January 19, 2021. The survey/poll asked the following question: 'Has the lockdown and other changes to life from the COVID-19 pandemic affected your marriage relationship?' The following options were provided:

Get your ex back with Coach Lee's Emergency Breakup Kit!

• • The lock down has not changed my marriage.
  • The lock down has harmed my marriage.
  • The lock down has been good for my marriage.

2429 people responded to this survey conducted January 19, 2021 to our email list. Of the 2429 respondents:

• • 17% answered that the pandemic had been good for their marriage
  • 72% answered that the pandemic had not changed their marriage
  • 11% answered that the pandemic had harmed their marriage"

The 2021 results get more interesting:

"Women were more likely to say their marriage had improved than men.
Men were more likely to say that their marriage had become worse.
21% of women said that their marriage had improved compared to 14% of men.
15% of men said that their marriage was worse compared to 7% of women."

Respondents were also asked if they were considering divorce as of January 19, 2021. Of the respondents, 19.98% (284) said that they were considering divorce. This number is down 29% from our 2019 survey of 1277 married couples where 357 or 28% responded that they were considering divorce.

Demographics of Respondents:

• 48.7% of respondents were from the United States.
• 21.4% of respondents were from the United Kingdom
• 5.8% of respondents were from India
• 5.2% Canada
• 4.6% Philippines

Sex of Respondents:

• 54% female
• 46% male

Age of Respondents:

• 18-24 years 10.6%
• 25-34 years 23.7%
• 35-44 years 37.5%
• 45-54 years 14.9%
• 55-64 years 9.1%
• 65+ years 4.2%

"It appears that some married couples experienced trauma induced limerence from the uncertainty and fear of the lockdowns of 2020-2021 and that such a spark fueled them to work out their issues and improve their marriage relationship."

 Limerence? It's nice to learn a new word, but it's a ridiculously overblown claim.

Limerence is a mental state of profound romantic infatuation, first defined in the 1970s by the psychologist Dorothy Tennov. It is characterised by an initial period of elation and intense emotional arousal that can progress to an involuntary, obsessive craving for another person.

-- From "Living with Limerence" by "Dr. Limerence". Oh. Uh, I can't wait to see what ads I start seeing after visiting Coach Ex-Back and Dr. Limerence. But it fairly matches the straight dictionary definition.

Headlines show how journalism distorts statistics & studies

Headlines from a Mathematically Literate World by Ben Orlin at mathwithbaddrawings.com

Big caveat: Some of the examples make points that go outside the author's actual expertise -- he's solid on mathematics and statistics but those necessarily overlap all kinds of other fields, which in turn depend on statistics but also on other branches of science. His example about the minimum wage is uniquely outside the scope of his expertise and of the whole point of his article, because it's actually about microeconomic analysis and prediction, not an empirical, statistical  analysis of outcomes. 

 

Young Unmarrieds More Marriage-Pessimistic, Pro-Divorce than Married People

Wendy Jessen writes in the heraldtimesonline.com:

Why do so many marriages end in divorce? Could our attitudes and views have something to do with the success or failure of our own marriages?

A study from the National Center for Family and Marriage Research explores the views of Generation X and Millennials on marital success rates. Based on the study, two out of five people (men and women) said that marriages have failed for most of the people they know. Forty to fifty percent of those who chose to cohabit at some point in their life or who are currently cohabiting, see marriage pessimistically. Interestingly, the number is much less for those who are currently married without prior cohabitation -- 22 percent.

Additionally, the majority believe that cohabiting before marriage reduces the risk of divorce, while among those who are married, only about one-third agree that cohabiting prior to marriage helps the marriage last.

Finally, those who have never been married also see divorce as a reasonable solution when a couple can't seem to work through problems. Conversely, married couples are more likely to seek other solutions to marital problems rather than use divorce as an answer to problems.

... Our perceptions are only based on our own reality -- the sum of what we have experienced throughout our lives. It's easy to make a rash judgment based on things you have heard or observed, with limited knowledge on the matter.

... If you get married with the idea that your marriage will eventually fall apart and fail, there's a good chance it will. Why make such a glum self-fulfilling prophecy? Why not go into marriage believing it will last and with the attitude and understanding that marriages take work? If your view of marriage is pessimistic, you'll likely find many reasons to support your theory. The opposite is also true.

Are you pessimistic about marriage success?

By Wendy Jessen of FamilyShare at heraldtimesonline.com via the Association of Family and Conciliation Courts

Based on "Generation X and Millennials Attitudes Toward Marriage & Divorce" (2015) by Kasey J. Eickmeyer at the National Center for Family and Marriage Research at Bowling Green State University.

58% of US kids live with both parents, married, 4% w/both parents unmarried; linked to education & race

"More Than 60% of U.S. Kids Live with Two Biological Parents"

By Nicholas Zill in Family Studies, 2/2/15

This brief report, based on the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey, 2014 Annual Social and Economic Supplement, breaks down many other categories of living arrangements, as well, and points out that 86% of college-educated parents are married to each other and living together.

It also points out that it's "only a snapshot at a single point in time" of all families with minor children, and so does not "show us changes in arrangements and relationships that occur as children grow and develop: for instance, if current trends hold steady, by the time they reach 17 years old, less than half of today’s youth will have spent their entire childhood in a two-parent family."

These numbers also show the hazards of unwed cohabitation for children. People, even pro-family researchers, often feel obligated to point out that parents CAN be just as permanent and committed, with equally healthy romantic and parenting relationships, even if they do not choose to marry. Well, they theoretically CAN, but this shows that not surprisingly, very few DO, or at least not for long. 

ACS marriage/divorce data is crucial: leading family demographer @justinwolfers explains why

It's great to see my opinion on the proposed elimination of marital status from the long-form census confirmed, with much more understanding, context and background, by an eminent statistician and demographer, Justin Wolfers, in the New York Times! 

"Census Bureau’s Plan to Cut Marriage and Divorce Questions Has Academics Up in Arms" (NYT 12/31/14)

Wolfers reviews what the American Community Survey and its predecessors do about marriage and divorce, what other sources of data are out there and how they work (and don't work), and why the data is crucial for both progressives and conservatives who are concerned about families.

Comments to Census Bureau on proposed end to collecting marriage/divorce info

Public comments are due Tuesday, Dec. 30. Here are the comments I sent in. 

In case you missed what this is about, see my original posting, "Census will stop studying marriage, divorce; Dec. 30 public comment deadline".

[Update: It's nice to see my opinion confirmed, with much more understanding, context and background, by an eminent statistician and demographer, Justin Wolfers, in the New York Times! "Census Bureau’s Plan to Cut Marriage and Divorce Questions Has Academics Up in Arms" (12/31/14)]

Census will stop studying marriage, divorce; Dec. 30 public comment deadline

[Update: It's nice to see my opinion confirmed, with much more understanding, context and background, by an eminent statistician and demographer, Justin Wolfers, in the New York Times! "Census Bureau’s Plan to Cut Marriage and Divorce Questions Has Academics Up in Arms" (12/31/14)]

The U.S. government plans to stop collecting the only divorce rate information that anyone actually cares about: What are our overall chances of divorcing, ever? How long do marriages last? How many children grow up without one parent? What is the divorce rate for people of my age, educational level, etc.? And what can we do about it?

Everything we know about these things comes from Census Bureau reports and non-governmental academic studies, both of which are in turn based on data from the annual "long-form" census, the American Community Survey (ACS), a 40-minute questionnaire sent to 3.54 million households each year.

The U.S. Census Bureau has proposed eliminating all questions on marriage and divorce from the ACS. Of the survey's 72 questions, 7 would be dropped, 5 of which are on marriage and divorce. The official announcement, with considerable background information, appeared in the Federal Register. 

Comments are due Dec. 30, 2014. By Dec. 30, send comments to [email protected] or

Jennifer Jessup, 
Departmental Paperwork Clearance Officer, 
Department of Commerce, 
1401 Constitution Ave., NW, Room 6616, 
Washington, D.C. 20230

(The comments I sent in are posted on my "Family Law News Blog")

Background: Why this is so important

The ACS gathers a great deal of information about the individual life experiences and characteristics of a very large sample of the population. So that is where we get information about correlations between marriage and divorce and other factors, such as the recent studies on how education, and age at marriage, affect the chances of divorce. This is also where we get divorce rates for particular cohorts and generations, measurements of the lengths of marriages, divorce rates for second and third marriages, and projections of the lifetime chances of divorce. All these things are surprisingly hard to measure and we need all the information we can get.

The Bureau, in a show of compliance with the Paperwork Reduction Act, analyzed the costs and benefits of each of the Survey's 72 questions, and found these 7 questions to be "Low Cost / Low Value," based on criteria which it explained. "Low Cost" meant that these questions do not bother people, attract complaints, or take much time to answer. "Value" was mostly a matter of how much other federal agencies use the information. The public, social, educational, or international usefulness of the information is not considered "Value", with one only exception: other surveys and studies which use ACS information info for their "sampling frames". Many other questions were "High Cost" -- a plethora which I'd hate to answer, asking for all kinds of income and expense figures -- but they were also legally required, so they are not going anywhere.

The only other source of statistics are annual numbers, which tell you things like "3.6 divorces per 1000 population for the last year we counted". (I.e., 0.72% of us get divorced every year.) That does not translate into intuitively useful information about people's lives, though it's handy for comparing years, states or countries. These statistics on marriages and divorces at the time and place that they happen are collected by local courts, which report them to state vital statistics offices, which then send them to the National Center for Health Statistics, part of the CDC, which publishes them. However, several states, including California, fail to collect or report the information. And more importantly, especially in a country where people move around from state to state, any intelligent analysis of marriage and divorce requires both kinds of information: the CDC's information on what's happening now, where, and the ACS information that tracks people's history, characteristics and movements.

The Vital Statistics Forms that go to the CDC in 80% of divorces actually record the date and place of marriage, number of prior marriages for each spouse, birth dates, birthplaces, education levels, race, number of children, length of separation, and divorce grounds. But nothing is done with this information. No one tabulates it or studies it for all the fascinating correlations it would reveal. But that does not mean that it's OK to abandon the ACS; as a scientifically selected representative sampling, it is both far more useful, and more manageable in size, than the tens of millions of forms that have been collected annually in 80% of all divorces. And besides, the ACS is already in place, and the government admits that these questions are "low cost". Studying, correlating and interpreting the data already collected in the vital statistics process is a consummation devoutly to be wished, but there is no history and no prospect of anyone doing it; and any decision to do so would not be coordinated with the decision now at hand, whether to end this country's most socially useful, and admittedly low-cost, collection of marriage and divorce statistics.

I was alerted to this by an excellent and brief article from the Bowling Green State University / National Center for Family and Marriage Research,  via the National Association for Relationship and Marriage Education (NARME). Here it is: 

SAVE MARRIAGE IN THE AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY

Just as U.S. marriage rates have reached their lowest level in a century and rates of divorce are high, the Census Bureau has proposed to eliminate questions about marriage, widowhood, and divorce in its Annual American Community Survey (ACS). This must be avoided! If these questions are dropped, the United States will become the only country in the developed world that does not generate annual age-specific rates of marriage and divorce.

The ACS is the ONLY way to estimate divorce for the entire nation and local (county and city) marriage and divorce rates. The National Vital Statistics System does not collect key socioeconomic information, is missing divorce data for one-fifth (20%) of the population of the U.S., and provides no information at the county or city level.

The questions below can be answered only with the ACS:

 Are Americans marrying more than divorcing?

• In any given year, there are more marriages than divorces in the U.S. In 2013, there were almost two marriages for every one divorce in the U.S.

How has the Great Recession influenced marriage and divorce?

• The marriage rate has declined and not returned to the pre-recession levels. Divorce has returned to pre-recession rates.

Do low income Americans experience differential marriage and divorce rates?

• Yes. The college educated have higher marriage rates and lower divorce rates than their more modestly educated counterparts. The ACS is the best and only source for statistics on the incidence of marriage and divorce across different economic as well as racial and ethnic subgroups. 

Do men and women have similar remarriage levels?

• From the ACS, we know that nearly one in three Americans who married last year was remarrying. Men have almost a 100% higher remarriage rate than women. No other data provides estimates of remarriage by age, gender, or race/ethnicity.

Who are experiencing the greatest increases in divorce?

• Baby Boomers have experienced the highest increase in divorce rates with one in four divorces occurring to persons over age 50. The ACS is the best way to estimate these age patterns.

Debunking the seven-year itch?

• Actually, it’s a 12-year itch. Estimates from the ACS indicate roughly half of first marriages end 12 years after walking down the aisle. 

Which states have the highest and lowest age at first marriage?

• Washington DC has the highest, and Idaho and Utah have among the lowest. 

Do same-sex marriages end faster than different-sex marriages?

• The ACS will be the only way to estimate levels and trends in same-sex marriage and divorce.

WHAT CAN YOU DO?

Contact Jennifer Jessup before December 30th objecting to the removal of marriage from the ACS! Email her at [email protected] or mail her at:

• Departmental Paperwork Clearance Officer
  Department of Commerce, Room 6616
  14th and Constitution Avenue NW
  Washington, DC 20230

What does the Research Community Say?

• Comments by the Population Association of America and the Association of Population Centers and the Minnesota Population Center:

HTTP://WWW.POPULATIONASSOCIATION.ORG/2014/12/07/PAA-AND-APC-COMMENT-ON-PROPOSED-ELIMINATION-OF-MARITAL-HISTORY-AND-FIELD-OF-DEGREE-QUESTIONS-ON-AMERICAN-COMMUNITY-SURVEY/

HTTPS://WWW.POP.UMN.EDU/INDEX.PHP?Q=ACS

 

Which questions are on the docket to be cut?

The Census proposes to eliminate all five questions in the ACS that describe marital history:

1. In the past 12 months did this person get—Married?

2. In the past 12 months did this person get—Widowed

3. In the past 12 months did this person get—Divorced?

4. Times Married—How many times has this person been married?

5. In what year did this person last get married?

Immigrants divorce less, even if poor and uneducated.

All immigrant groups have lower divorce rates than the US average.

Poorer and less educated immigrants marry just as often, and divorce even less, than richer and more educated ones. This is the opposite of the pattern for Americans generally.

Hispanics have lower marriage rates than average, Asians have higher ones.

These findings, and some very insightful suggestions for exploring the underlying reasons, are in:

Marital Demography: The Immigrant Difference" by Anne Snyder in Family Studies

Based on "U.S. 2010: Divergent Paths of American Families" by Zhenchao Qian of the Sociology Department at Ohio State University, a comprehensive report on marriage, cohabitation, divorce, and remarriage and on many demographic variables and correlations.

Top 10 reasons for divorce and what happens in the 2 years before it - UK survey of 1,000

• New Survey Sheds Light On How And Why Couples Call It Quits (INFOGRAPHIC) - huffingtonpost.com
• Stigma of Divorce Still Alive & Well in 2014 Britain – New Report - Slater & Gordon
• Slater & Gordon Research Shows Unhappy Couples Fear Stigma of Divorce

 

54% in good relationships. 18% thrilled, 36% satisfied, 27% mudding through, 14% enduring, 4% starved

"More Than Half of Americans in Happy Relationships" by PAIRS FOUNDATION • AUGUST 20, 2013

Excerpts:

 More than half of Americans are either “satisfied,” 36 percent, or “thrilled,” 18 percent, with the quality of their intimate relationships, according to a study of 10,548 people in the continental United States conducted over more than two years by the nonprofit PAIRS Foundation ... 

PAIRS CEO Seth Eisenberg released findings from the 26-month American Relationship Study today that also revealed 27 percent of people to be navigating significant relationship challenges with 18 percent facing high risk of separation or divorce. Four percent of the total study group were at the highest risk for separation or divorce.

PAIRS CEO Seth Eisenberg says more than half of Americans are “satisfied” or “thrilled” with the quality of their intimate relationships.

Eisenberg said findings showed national relationship satisfaction to be fairly even throughout the year, with a small peak in March/April (+2 percent) and seasonal declines in November (-3 percent), December (-4 percent), January (-5 percent) and June (-3 percent).

While Eisenberg said the initial study was not designed to evaluate geographic differences, he said preliminary findings indicate higher levels of relationship satisfaction for people living in Idaho, Montana, Mississippi, West Virginia, Oklahoma, New York, Ohio, Minnesota, Kentucky, Delaware and Colorado. Lower levels were reported by participants in the District of Columbia, Oregon, New Mexico, Maine, Missouri and Rhode Island. 

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